Answer extracted from the Up First from NPR podcast — listen to the full episode below.
Are modern El Niños significantly stronger than those before industrialization?
Yes. Climate research studying coral skeletons spanning the past thousand years reveals that modern El Niños are approximately 36 percent stronger than pre-industrial ones. This amplification is a direct consequence of living in a warmer world, where increased atmospheric heat fuels these extreme weather systems with greater intensity.
How Scientists Know Modern El Niños Pack More Power
Climate scientist Julia Cole at the University of Michigan examined coral skeletons in the Galapagos, which act as a historical record of ocean conditions dating back centuries. These skeletal archives preserve chemical signatures that reveal the temperature and intensity of past El Niño events with remarkable precision.
By comparing pre-industrial El Niño patterns—those occurring before widespread fossil fuel combustion—with contemporary events, Cole's research quantifies a clear shift: modern El Niños have become measurably more extreme. As discussed in this episode of Up First from NPR, this difference correlates directly with global warming caused by human emissions.
The Warming World Effect
The planet is already approximately 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than pre-industrial temperatures due to fossil fuel burning. This baseline warming acts as a multiplier: El Niño events unfold in an atmosphere and ocean system that is fundamentally more energized, releasing greater volumes of heat and moisture into the atmosphere with each cycle.
The consequences are immediate and severe. Stronger El Niños trigger crop failures, regional droughts, and weather disruptions from Germany to India, as reported in the current episode. This year's "Super El Niño" has already shattered records for air and sea surface temperatures worldwide, demonstrating the real-world impact of this intensification.
"Modern El Niños are significantly stronger than the ones that we saw in the pre-industrial era."
Julia Cole — Climate Scientist, University of Michigan. Cole specializes in paleoclimate research and uses natural archives like coral skeletons to reconstruct past ocean conditions and understand how climate patterns have shifted with industrial warming.
The mechanism is straightforward: when El Niño's warm Pacific waters release heat into a warmer atmosphere, the effect compounds. A natural climate cycle that has always existed becomes dramatically more powerful in a heat-trapped world, creating cascading impacts discussed at length in the podcast—from altered rainfall patterns in North America to agricultural collapse in vulnerable regions.
See also
How does rainfall distribution differ across the US during El Niño years?
During El Niño years, the southern half of the US usually experiences more intense rain that could cause destructive flooding, while the northern half gets drier conditions.
What are the projected temperature impacts of this Super El Niño in the United States?
This El Niño will raise temperatures globally, and since it occurs on top of climate change when the planet is already about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit hotter from burning fossil fuels, the combined effect intensifies heat impacts across the country.
What makes the current El Niño a 'Super El Niño' and how strong is it?
Federal forecasters describe it as a very strong El Niño, with climate scientist Julia Cole noting it is stronger than any other El Niño has been at this stage of its cycle.