Answer extracted from the Up First from NPR podcast — listen to the full episode below.
Why is this year's El Niño breaking records and still getting stronger?
Federal forecasters describe it as a very strong El Niño, with temperatures still rising toward what researchers expect will be historic, record-breaking impacts. This year's El Niño is stronger than any other has been at this time of year, and its effects are expected to last for months after it peaks at year-end.
The fundamental reason this El Niño stands out is rooted in how modern climate dynamics have shifted. Modern El Niños are about 36 percent stronger than the ones observed in the pre-industrial era, according to climate research. This amplification reflects the broader warming trend: the planet is already 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit hotter from burning fossil fuels, creating a baseline of elevated ocean and air temperatures that supercharges the natural El Niño cycle.
When El Niño forms—a natural cycle triggered by massive accumulations of warm water in the Pacific Ocean around the equator—it releases enormous amounts of heat into the atmosphere. This year, that heat is being released into a world that's already significantly warmer than it was a century ago. As described in the episode, the combination of the natural cycle and human-driven warming creates a compounding effect that has already shattered records for air and sea surface temperatures.
The disruption is already visible globally. El Niño has already triggered crop failures and droughts across multiple regions, from Germany to India. Reporting from Up First from NPR emphasizes that this phenomenon hasn't even peaked yet—the worst impacts are still to come as temperatures continue climbing toward the year-end peak.
What makes this particular El Niño historically significant
The "Super El Niño" designation reflects not just how strong it is right now, but how exceptional it remains relative to the annual calendar. Climate scientists have noted that this El Niño has no precedent in terms of strength at this particular point in the year. Typically, El Niño events reach peak intensity between November and January, but this one has already surpassed the strength of previous El Niños at the same stage of development.
Federal forecasters are confident that when this El Niño peaks, it will likely establish new records. The ripple effects—crop failures, water shortages, temperature extremes, and altered precipitation patterns—will persist well beyond the calendar year. The full episode explores the planetary mechanisms driving these cascading impacts, including how the warmth propagates from the Pacific across the globe.
See also
How does El Niño form and what are its planetary effects?
El Niño is a natural cycle where huge amounts of warm water accumulate in the Pacific Ocean around the equator, releasing substantial heat to the atmosphere and creating far-reaching ripple effects across global weather patterns.
What is castoreum and how was it historically used?
Castoreum is an anal secretion produced by beavers, used historically as a scent marker similar to how dogs mark territory. In medieval times it was used in various applications across Europe.
Why do beavers build dams even in Britain where their natural predators no longer exist?
Beavers build dams instinctively to raise water levels so they can hide underwater from predators such as wolves and bears. Even though all of those predators are gone from Britain, the instinct remains.