Answer extracted from the Up First from NPR podcast — listen to the full episode below.
Will this Super El Niño make 2024 or 2025 the hottest year on record?
This year or next could become the hottest year on record because the Super El Niño is raising global temperatures on top of a planet already 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit hotter from fossil fuels. The combined warming effect creates a real risk of unprecedented heat extremes across the United States.
El Niño is a natural cycle that releases massive amounts of heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere, disrupting weather patterns worldwide. What makes the current event different is its timing and intensity. As the episode explains, this Super El Niño is hitting a climate system that has already been fundamentally altered by decades of fossil fuel emissions.
The heat-trapping effect compounds in a dangerous way. Modern El Niños are about 36 percent stronger than pre-industrial versions, meaning the cycle itself has become more disruptive. When such a powerful natural phenomenon overlays on a warming baseline, the result is not simply additive—it creates conditions for extreme temperatures that have no historical precedent.
For the United States specifically, this means the Intermountain West and other regions already vulnerable to heat stress could face conditions that go beyond what infrastructure, agriculture, and public health systems were designed to handle. The phenomenon has already caused crop failures and droughts globally, and it has not yet peaked, as discussed in detail on the podcast.
The timing matters because whichever year—2024 or 2025—experiences the peak warming could set a new baseline temperature record. If that record holds, it shifts the entire reference point for what counts as "normal" climate, making future extremes seem less anomalous by comparison, a critical psychological and policy threshold discussed throughout the conversation.
Why the Super El Niño amplifies climate change impacts
The danger lies in stacking two warming mechanisms simultaneously. Fossil fuel emissions warm the planet consistently year after year; El Niño events warm it dramatically but cyclically. When a Super El Niño arrives during a period of elevated baseline temperatures, there is no natural ceiling left to buffer the peak. The warmest years in recorded history have almost always occurred during or just after El Niño events, and this cycle is stronger than any before it.
For the United States, regional impacts will vary, but areas already experiencing drought—particularly in the Intermountain West—could face compounded stress. Heat waves will likely become more intense and longer-lasting. The combination creates cascading risks for agriculture, water supplies, power grids, and public health. Want to understand the full scope of how El Niño operates and why this one is unprecedented? Tune into the full episode for deeper analysis.
See also
What makes the current El Niño a 'Super El Niño' and how strong is it?
Federal forecasters describe it as a very strong El Niño, with climate scientist Julia Cole noting it is stronger than any other El Niño has been at this point in development.
How does El Niño form and what are its planetary effects?
El Niño is a natural cycle where huge amounts of warm water accumulate in the Pacific Ocean around the equator, releasing substantial heat to the atmosphere and creating far-reaching ripple effects across global weather patterns.
What is castoreum and how was it historically used?
Castoreum is an anal secretion produced by beavers, used historically as a scent marker similar to how dogs mark territory. In medieval times it was used in various applications.