Answer extracted from The Produce Industry Podcast w/ Patrick Kelly — listen to the full episode below.
Which regions face the worst drought and flooding from El Niño?
According to UN assessments cited in this episode, El Niño elevates drought risk in Central America, Southeast Asia, the Sahel, and Southern Africa, while simultaneously increasing flood hazards in East Africa and South America. These opposing weather impacts create a complex risk landscape that demands region-specific agricultural preparation.
Drought zones under El Niño pressure
The geographic footprint of El Niño-induced drought is remarkably consistent. Central America faces the most acute threat, with food insecurity rising by 83 percent in the region according to data discussed in the episode. This pattern reflects broader atmospheric circulation shifts driven by the weakening of the Walker Circulation—the ocean-atmosphere feedback system that normally steers weather patterns across the equatorial Pacific.
Southeast Asia and the Sahel—spanning West Africa's semi-arid belt—face similarly elevated drying conditions. Southern Africa completes the drought quadrant, a region whose agricultural output already carries outsized weight in global grain and commodity markets. When these four zones face simultaneous moisture stress, the cumulative crop stress ripples outward to affect global grain reserves and export corridors.
Simultaneous flooding in East Africa and South America
While drought grips four regions, El Niño simultaneously drives excess precipitation in East Africa and across parts of South America. This seemingly paradoxical pattern—drought and deluge on opposite sides of the Atlantic—reflects how El Niño disrupts the jet streams and moisture patterns that define normal seasonal weather.
East Africa, which includes major maize and bean-producing zones, faces flash flood risks that can waterlog fields and trigger disease outbreaks in crops and livestock. South America, home to vast soybean and grain production, similarly confronts flooding that threatens yield integrity. The contrast between drought and flooding creates operational and logistical chaos across the global supply chain, as some regions face crop failure while neighbors contend with harvest delays from excess moisture.
The World Meteorological Organization and other UN agencies have detailed these regional impacts extensively, underscoring that El Niño is not a single weather event but a coordinated planetary disruption with winners and losers on nearly every continent.
"El Niño is firmly established and expected to strengthen further with nearly 100 percent likelihood that it will persist through February of 2027."
Patrick Kelly — Host of The Produce Industry Podcast, reporting on forecasts from NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization. Kelly draws on industry research and supply chain intelligence to translate global weather science into actionable insights for produce professionals.
If you want to explore how these regional impacts cascade into global rice markets and food security projections, the full episode covers the downstream economic shocks in granular detail.
Key takeaways
- El Niño creates a four-zone drought belt: Central America, Southeast Asia, the Sahel, and Southern Africa, each facing elevated crop water stress and food insecurity.
- Simultaneous flooding in East Africa and South America disrupts harvests and supply logistics in opposing agricultural hubs.
- Central America's food insecurity risk rises by 83 percent under current El Niño conditions, signaling acute vulnerability in a major produce source region.
- The geographic split between drought and deluge reflects deep shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns, amplifying complexity for global supply chain planning.
See also
What are the expected impacts on global rice production and pricing due to El Niño conditions?
El Niño is expected to reduce Indian and global rice yields, with global rice prices likely rising by 10 to 20 percent due to yield losses and tighter market conditions.
How many additional people could face acute food insecurity due to El Niño-related shocks by the end of 2027?
The World Food Program estimates that El Niño-related shocks could push 49 million additional people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027, with cascading effects on global hunger and migration.
What weather pattern impacts does El Niño typically produce across the United States?
El Niño brings warmer winters in the northern U.S., wetter and cooler winters in the southern U.S., and increased likelihood of rain, snow, and tornadoes in specific regions.