Answer extracted from The Produce Industry Podcast w/ Patrick Kelly — listen to the full episode below.
How many additional people could face acute food insecurity due to El Niño-related shocks by the end of 2027?
The World Food Program estimates that 49 million additional people could face acute food insecurity by the end of 2027 as a direct result of El Niño-related shocks. Central America faces the most severe impact with an 83 percent increase in food insecurity, while East and South Africa will see 18 million people affected, with significant crop losses expected across Asia and the Pacific as well.
This forecast reflects the cascading effects of the strongest El Niño event in record history, which is expected to peak between September and December 2026, with impacts continuing through 2027. The food insecurity crisis will not be uniform—different regions face vastly different levels of vulnerability based on their agricultural dependence and climate exposure.
As Patrick Kelly details in the episode, the consequences extend beyond hunger statistics to reshape supply chains for fresh produce globally. The warming Pacific waters already disrupt crop yields in some of the world's most critical agricultural regions.
Regional vulnerability and crop impacts
Central America's exposure is particularly acute, with the 83 percent increase in food insecurity representing a near-doubling of the crisis. The region's agricultural economy is heavily dependent on climate-sensitive crops, making it exceptionally vulnerable to the precipitation and temperature shifts El Niño brings.
East and South Africa, collectively facing 18 million people pushed into acute food insecurity, already struggle with fragile food systems. These regions will experience compounded stress from both crop failures and disrupted trade patterns. Southeast Asia and the broader Pacific region face equally severe threats to major staple crops, with global rice prices likely rising 10 to 20 percent due to yield losses alone.
As discussed in this podcast episode, understanding these regional dynamics is essential for anyone working in the produce supply chain, as sourcing, pricing, and availability will shift dramatically through 2027.
The 49 million figure itself carries profound weight: it represents not a theoretical exercise, but a direct forecast from the World Food Program, one of the world's leading organizations tracking global hunger. The number underscores why El Niño is far more than a weather story—it is a humanitarian and economic turning point for the global food system.
For a deeper exploration of how El Niño forms, which regions face the greatest weather impacts, and why this particular event is historically unprecedented, listen to the full episode on Listenly.
See also
What weather pattern impacts does El Niño typically produce across the United States?
El Niño brings warmer winters in the northern U.S., wetter and cooler winters in the southern U.S., with increased likelihood of rain, snow, and tornadoes across various regions.
Why is the 2026-2027 El Niño event considered historically significant compared to previous events?
Forecasts are predicting that this year's El Niño will be the strongest in record history, with the World Meteorological Organization stating that El Niño is firmly established and expected to strengthen further through February 2027.
What is El Niño according to scientific definition and how does it form in the Pacific Ocean?
El Niño is a climate pattern that forms when equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures rise at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above average for several consecutive months, driven by shifts in ocean and atmospheric circulation.