Answer extracted from The Produce Industry Podcast w/ Patrick Kelly — listen to the full episode below.
Why is the 2026–2027 El Niño the strongest on record?
Forecasts are predicting that this year's El Niño will be the strongest in record history. The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed that El Niño is firmly established and expected to strengthen further, with nearly 100 percent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027—marking the first time the WMO has issued such an unequivocal update.
The 2026–2027 event stands apart from previous El Niño cycles because of the unprecedented certainty and strength that scientific bodies like the World Meteorological Organization have attributed to it. In the past, forecasts carried more hedging language and lower confidence levels. This time, the WMO's near-total confidence in both the establishment and persistence of El Niño through early 2027 signals a rare alignment of atmospheric and oceanic conditions that leave little room for doubt.
What makes this particular cycle historically significant is not just its predicted intensity, but its cascading impact across global food systems. El Niño is expected to peak between September and December 2026, with effects continuing well into 2027. As detailed in this episode of The Produce Industry Podcast, the World Food Program projects that 49 million additional people could face acute food insecurity by the end of 2027.
The agricultural fallout is already being modeled. Central America is facing an 83 percent increase in food insecurity, while East and South Africa expect 18 million people to be affected. Global rice prices are projected to rise between 10 and 20 percent due to yield losses tied to this event. These figures underscore why the produce industry is tracking this cycle so closely.
Patrick Kelly explores the deeper mechanics and regional vulnerabilities of this Super El Niño cycle in the full episode, including how supply chain disruptions may unfold through the end of the decade.
Why the WMO's language matters
The World Meteorological Organization's unequivocal confirmation of El Niño's establishment and near-100-percent persistence through February 2027 represents a milestone in climate forecasting confidence. Historically, WMO updates have used more cautious language, allowing for shifts in the pattern or reversal. The absence of such hedging this time signals that the conditions driving this El Niño are robust and resistant to disruption.
This level of certainty is important for producers, retailers, and policymakers because it removes ambiguity from planning. Unlike previous cycles where forecasts shifted quarterly, stakeholders can now operate with greater confidence in the outlook, though the severity of impacts remains sobering.
See also
What is El Niño according to scientific definition and how does it form in the Pacific Ocean?
El Niño is a climate pattern that forms when equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures rise at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above average for several consecutive months.
What role does retailer engagement play in the sustainability of mushroom farming operations?
Retailers have tremendous sales force capability with mushrooms, which can move significant volume. The category needs retailers to visit mushroom farmers to understand farming operations and support long-term sustainability.
Why is domestic U.S. mushroom production critical despite current supply constraints?
U.S. growers produce better quality mushrooms than any other competing producers globally. The industry faces input cost shocks from fuel and other factors that threaten production sustainability.
Key takeaways
- The 2026–2027 El Niño is forecasted to be the strongest in recorded history, with unprecedented scientific certainty backing the prediction.
- The World Meteorological Organization has issued nearly 100 percent confidence that El Niño will persist through February 2027, a rare level of conviction.
- Global food insecurity could affect 49 million additional people by the end of 2027, with Central America facing an 83 percent surge in food insecurity.
- Rice prices are projected to rise 10–20 percent due to yield losses driven by El Niño impacts in key production regions.