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How are data centers and AI demand shaping energy infrastructure planning in the GCC?

September 5, 2026 Beyond the Deck · Carmen Hamze

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Data center energy demand is a major consideration for policymakers and investors because infrastructure takes years to plan and build, while technology can shift within 5–10 years. The solution is scenario planning: building a resilient national strategy that accounts for different demand futures rather than betting on a single outcome.

The Infrastructure Timing Problem

The core challenge is a fundamental mismatch in timescales. Software scales up and down almost instantly—you can deploy new compute capacity in days or weeks. But large energy infrastructure projects require 5–10 years from approval to operation, and during that window, AI adoption rates, data center efficiency, and technology architecture can all change dramatically.

This creates real risk for both governments and private investors. A country can commit to building a new power plant or expanding grid capacity, only to discover that demand evolved differently than expected, or that competing technologies made the original design less optimal. As discussed in the Beyond the Deck episode, this timing gap is one of the defining strategic questions facing GCC energy planners today.

Why Scenario Planning Works

Rather than predicting one future, scenario planning builds flexibility into the strategy itself. The approach maps out multiple plausible futures—conservative demand growth, moderate growth, and aggressive AI-driven growth—and designs infrastructure and policy that performs reasonably across all of them.

This method mitigates both risk and cost. By stress-testing plans against different scenarios, policymakers can identify which investments are robust regardless of how demand unfolds, and which contingencies matter most. As Carmen Hamze explains in the podcast, this balanced approach has become the standard thinking in GCC energy strategy—a shift from the siloed, single-solution mentality of the past.

"There's not one solution that's going to solve everything. It's multiple—green hydrogen will still be in place, LNG and CCUS will be key."

The data center boom is not separate from this broader energy mix—it's a new variable that demands the same scenario-based thinking. Listen to the full episode to hear how Carmen Hamze discusses the role of low-carbon molecules, renewable energy, and traditional oil and gas within a unified portfolio framework that accounts for data center demand.

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