Answer extracted from the Beyond the Deck podcast — listen to the full episode below.
How did Russia's invasion of Ukraine impact energy policy thinking in the GCC?
Russia's invasion of Ukraine delivered a stark geopolitical reality check: energy security and conventional energy sources remain non-negotiable, even for nations committed to net zero. The crisis forced GCC policymakers to abandon the narrative of eliminating hydrocarbons and embrace instead a pragmatic, multi-solution energy portfolio where gas, nuclear, and carbon capture coexist with renewables.
Five years before the invasion, the global conversation was dominated by ideological commitments to net zero and eliminating fossil fuels entirely. As Carmen Hamze explains in the episode, that framing oversimplified what energy transition actually requires. The Ukraine conflict stripped away that oversimplification, revealing that countries face genuine trade-offs between climate ambitions, energy affordability, and supply security.
From ideology to pragmatism: the energy trilemma takes hold
The GCC had already adopted a more balanced three-pillar approach—sustainability, energy security, and affordability—before the invasion. But the wider world was still caught in binary thinking. Ukraine changed that calculus globally. Suddenly, policymakers everywhere recognized what the GCC had already internalized: there is no single solution.
What emerged is a recognition that gas acts as the backbone of a transition strategy, not a relic to be discarded. This portfolio logic is detailed in the full episode, where Hamze walks through how renewables, data centers, low-carbon molecules like hydrogen and CCUS, and traditional energy all need to operate in concert, not in isolation.
"There's not one solution that's going to solve everything. It's multiple—green hydrogen will still be in place, LNG and CCUS will be key."
Carmen Hamze — Partner at Rollenberger, energy strategy expert with over 14 years of experience across the GCC. Hamze transitioned from biomedical research and healthcare consulting into energy consulting at a GCC utility, where she built deep expertise in energy strategy, sustainability, and the real-world constraints of energy transitions.
The invasion also exposed a deeper structural reality: rising energy demand from artificial intelligence and data centers will require continuous baseload power. The episode explores how data centers and AI infrastructure are reshaping GCC energy planning, forcing recognition that electrification alone cannot meet future needs without strategic deployment of gas and other conventional sources.
See also
What advantage do GCC countries have in developing CCUS technology compared to other regions?
Countries with a history of large hydrocarbon sectors like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have significant advantages in CCUS because they have existing upstream infrastructure, geological expertise, and the capital to scale these technologies.
Why is green hydrogen momentum slowing and what technologies will actually drive the next five years of energy development in the GCC?
Green hydrogen will still be part of the solution but will progress slowly depending on technology evolution. The more immediate breakthroughs in the short term will come from CCUS, LNG, and data center infrastructure development.
What is the current landscape of the energy sector across the GCC and how has it shifted in recent years?
The GCC energy sector has shifted from focusing on siloed subsectors like oil and gas to a portfolio approach that integrates renewable energy, data centers, and low-carbon molecules, all guided by the energy trilemma of sustainability, security, and affordability.
Key takeaways
- Russia's invasion shattered the global consensus that hydrocarbons should be eliminated; it reinstated energy security as a primary policy concern alongside climate goals.
- The GCC's earlier pivot to a portfolio approach—balancing sustainability, security, and affordability—proved prescient and is now becoming the default model for energy transitions worldwide.
- Gas, CCUS, and low-carbon molecules are not climate compromises; they are essential infrastructure for a feasible transition that meets rising energy demand while reducing emissions.
- The energy transition requires multiple simultaneous technologies, not ideological commitments to single solutions—a lesson Ukraine made undeniable.