Answer extracted from the The FreightFA Brief Podcast — listen to the full episode below.
Why do shipping cost increases consistently outpace inflation rates year over year?
Shipping rates increase an average of 6% per year, regardless of inflation levels—a pattern that has held steady for the past 25 years. Even when inflation drops, carrier rate increases continue relentlessly, compounding year after year into substantial margin erosion for shippers.
A Structural Problem That Inflation Cannot Explain
The fundamental issue is that inflation is a poor benchmark for freight budgets. While inflation measures the general rise in consumer prices across the economy, shipping rates operate under different pressures. Oliver Najumi of ICC Logistics explains that carriers raise rates as a structural business practice, independent of broader economic conditions.
This year, the pressure is intensifying. As discussed in the episode, peak season surcharges are stacking atop new rate increases from October through January 2027, creating compounding cost exposure that most CFOs fail to anticipate because they budget off outdated numbers.
The Accessorial Cost Trap
Beyond base rate increases, hidden fees—known as accessorials—amplify the true cost of shipping far beyond the headline rate. One customer discovered in their freight audit that when weight and dimension thresholds changed, their accessorial costs jumped by $200,000 annually. A furniture shipper found that nearly 47% of their entire $400,000 annual shipping budget was consumed by accessorial charges alone.
These hidden fees grow at rates that dwarf inflation. An accessorial charge for items over 48 inches or 40 pounds increased from $9 in 2015 to $58.75 in 2024—a 582% increase over 11 years.
"There is no Bloomberg for freight, so it teaches you to be forensic in how you audit shipping operations."
Oliver Najumi — Executive Vice President, ICC Logistics. Oliver has led ICC's logistics optimization and auditing division since April 2014. With nearly 50 years of institutional expertise behind him, ICC acts as an impartial extension of CFO and supply chain teams, processing roughly $9 billion annually in shipping transactional data and uncovering rate errors, contract misalignment, and accessorial overcharges across major carriers including USPS, UPS, and FedEx.
The solution is not to accept these increases passively. Shippers who diversify their carrier base have recovered substantial savings. One $5 million UPS shipper customer saved $1.6 million annually (50% reduction) by moving just 30% of their low-weight volume to alternative carriers. Even a modest carrier diversification strategy revealed 33% savings opportunities in segments the primary carrier had served at premium rates.
Understanding why shipping outpaces inflation requires recognizing that rate increases are not market-driven reactions to economic conditions—they are carrier business model defaults. Learn exactly how to spot leakage, challenge inflated claims, and protect margin before the next round of increases hits in the full episode on Listenly.
Key takeaways
- Shipping rates increase 6% annually on average, a consistent pattern over 25 years that continues regardless of inflation levels.
- Peak season surcharges from carriers like USPS are stacking through January 2027, creating compounding cost exposure most shippers underestimate.
- Accessorial charges (fees for weight, dimensions, special handling) now consume 40–50% of total shipping spend for many companies and grow 5–10× faster than inflation.
- Carrier diversification—moving even 30% of volume to alternative carriers—can recover 30–50% in savings on underutilized segments.