Answer extracted from the Hit The Brakes: The Can't Miss Topics in the Logistics Industry podcast — listen to the full episode below.
How have spot market rates changed in the freight industry over the past six to eight months compared to historical benchmarks?
Spot market rates have experienced the fastest climb ever recorded in freight history over the past six to eight months, with increases of 30–40% when including fuel surcharges and 20–30% when excluding them, compared to the previous year. This surge has even exceeded the dramatic rate spikes seen during the early days of COVID.
The magnitude of this shift represents a complete reversal of market conditions. For years, the freight industry had been navigating excess capacity and favorable conditions for shippers. Then, as Brett Leifert explains in the episode, something fundamental changed around Q4 of the previous year, and the acceleration has continued unabated into mid-2026.
A Supply-Driven Market Transformation
The root cause of this unprecedented rate climb is a sharp exit of capacity from the market, far more than a surge in demand. Tens of thousands of non-domicile CDL drivers left the industry following FMCSA enforcement actions, roughly 2,000 Mexican drivers lost their ability to enter the U.S. due to cabotage enforcement, and north of 50 CDL schools closed across the southwest, Texas, and California. Each of these factors simultaneously reduced the supply side of trucking.
What makes this environment distinct is that while demand has shown early signs of recovery, the real story remains the capacity constraint. As Leifert describes it, "This is truly a supply driven recovery. Demands have some green shoots, but it's really more about the exit of capacity." This imbalance has left shippers facing spot rate pressures not seen since the early pandemic, even as overall freight volumes remain more moderate than during that earlier crisis.
"This is truly a supply driven recovery. Demands have some green shoots, but it's really more about the exit of capacity."
Brett Leifert — Director of Innovation and Strategy at Fetch Freight. Leifert analyzes supply chain market trends, capacity dynamics, regulatory impacts, and freight demand patterns. He provides regular market forecasts and conducts detailed webinar analyses on trucking industry conditions, bringing data-driven insights into how macro-level policy decisions reshape carrier availability and shipper economics.
The breadth of the rate increase—spanning both fuel-inclusive and fuel-exclusive components—signals that the climb is not driven by commodity costs alone. The episode details exactly which regions and carrier segments are experiencing the sharpest increases, providing crucial context for shippers negotiating new contracts. Contract rates, separately, are averaging 7.5% increases in this cycle, ranging from 5% to 10%, a more moderate move than spot but still reflective of tightening capacity expectations.
For shippers and logistics managers, the implication is clear: the soft market of the past three years has definitively ended. Planning, procurement, and carrier diversification strategies should now account for a fundamentally different rate environment and the supply constraints that will persist until carrier exits stabilize or new capacity enters the market.
See also
What verification methods does Fetch Freight use throughout the shipment lifecycle to protect customers from fraudulent carriers?
Fetch Freight collects truck and trailer plate numbers and shares them with customers so they know exactly which carrier and driver will pick up the load.
What compliance steps should carriers take to maintain good standing with brokerages and avoid onboarding delays?
Carriers should keep their Certificate of Insurance (COI) current and update it with the FMCSA before expiration, and report new trucks to stay compliant with brokerage requirements.
How have freight fraud tactics shifted from phone-based identity theft to AI-assisted schemes in carrier onboarding?
Fraud has evolved from primarily phone-based schemes detectable by voice and background noise to AI-assisted methods that are harder to identify and far more sophisticated.
Key takeaways
- Spot rates have climbed 30–40% (inclusive of fuel) in six to eight months—the fastest increase ever recorded in freight history.
- The surge is primarily driven by a sharp exit of capacity: tens of thousands of non-domicile drivers, 2,000+ Mexican drivers, and 50+ CDL schools closed or exited.
- Demand recovery has been modest ("green shoots"), but supply constraints dominate pricing and availability.
- Contract rates are averaging 7.5% increases (5–10% range), a more moderate but still significant move reflecting market tightness.