Answer extracted from the Car Dealership Guy Podcast — listen to the full episode below.
Will 50–60% of vehicle service move to mobile shops outside dealerships?
Industry leaders predict that within five years, between 50 and 60 percent of routine vehicle maintenance will shift to mobile service outside dealership facilities. This transformation reflects a direct response to customer demand for convenience—dealers who meet customers halfway on this shift can retain the remaining service volume by remaining competitive.
The prediction comes from a consensus among fixed ops experts during a panel at the Chempress Supplier Summit. Ed Roberts forecasts 60 percent of service visits becoming mobile, while Richard Lupo estimates 50 percent of routine work like oil changes and tire rotations will move outside brick-and-mortar locations. The timeline is aggressive: both scenarios assume this shift occurs within just a few years.
This isn't speculation about remote diagnostics or theoretical convenience. As discussed in this panel conversation, mobile service is already operationally viable—Ed Roberts himself operates 40-some mobile vans handling 11,000 repair orders monthly, proving the model works at scale.
Why dealerships should accept the 50-50 split
Dave Rogers offers a pragmatic view: if dealers voluntarily embrace 50 percent mobile service, customers will reward them with the other 50 percent of their service business. The logic is straightforward—customers have 16 other service options in most markets, and they choose based on convenience and ease of doing business.
Resistance is understandable but shortsighted. Refusing mobile service doesn't prevent customers from using it elsewhere; it simply ensures they'll use it with a competitor. The panel explored how dealerships can become easier than those alternatives by meeting customers where they are, literally and operationally.
The mobile service migration isn't a threat to dealership service departments—it's an opportunity to retain customers who would otherwise defect entirely. Facilities remain valuable for complex diagnostics and warranty work, but the routine maintenance that builds customer relationships increasingly happens on the road.
For dealers tracking performance metrics, this shift clarifies a critical strategic question: do you want 50 percent of a customer's service lifetime value through convenience, or zero percent by forcing them elsewhere? The industry consensus is clear.
See also
How should dealership service departments answer incoming phone calls to improve customer retention?
Richard Lupo advocates for proactive solutions: Apple Tree Automotive uses an AI agent that catches every single call, logs it, and schedules appointments automatically, eliminating the friction of hold times and missed opportunities.
What role does customer friction play in repair order decline compared to market availability?
Dave Rogers argues that customer friction accounts for roughly 50 percent of repair order decline. Dealers make it unnecessarily difficult to do business through excessive processes and rules, pushing customers toward simpler alternatives.
Why are repair orders declining in automotive dealerships?
Two factors compete: fewer vehicles in operation from prior-year sales declines, and customer friction created by dealership policies that make it harder to do business than using independent service providers or mobile alternatives.